Identity theft. Prying hackers. Employer snoops. Even if you've got nothing to hide and little to steal, the growing invasion of online privacy is unsettling. And it's likely to get worse before it gets better. What will this mean for society-and business-10 years from now? Will we spend our time scrubbing hard drives and scrutinizing online privacy policies? Will we abandon the Net altogether? As chairman of the future-studies program at University of Houston-Clear Lake, and an adviser to NASA on such issues as finding commercial uses for space-related technology, Peter C. Bishop makes it his business to think about
such questions. Here, he forecasts five possible scenarios:
Business as Usual
"One possibility is that the costs of using the technology won't rise above its benefits," says Bishop. The invasion of Internet privacy remains simply a nuisance, making people more careful but hardly forcing them to withdraw altogether. "There are downsides to the automobile: It kills people and pollutes the air. But society puts up with it because the benefits are so great."
A Technological Fix
But might the costs begin to outweigh the benefits? "I could picture a day when people make purchases through intermediaries," says Bishop. "These would be entities with whom consumers entrust their names, addresses, and all other relevant data, and the intermediaries in turn supply a secure method of making anonymous online purchases." In this scenario, individuals would go to a Web site, select an item, and enter an ID number. The vendor would then clear access to the buyer's funds with the intermediary, who would in turn transfer the money.
A World Body
What happens when Internet privacy violations grow steadily worse? "People might put up with more regulation in return for a greater feeling of security," says Bishop. No one government could do it alone. Instead, he imagines an international agency as a possible solution-much like the International Court of Justice or the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers-to police the Net.
Rejection
Might an increasing lack of privacy drive people away from the Web? "If credit card losses were so great that banks couldn't cover them, or if the credit card companies tried to pass the liabilities of fraud onto the consumer, then customers would stop using them. The whole system could crater." Bishop can picture a day when nondigital transactions return to the fore. "If individuals feel they're going to be hurt by the technology, they'll turn away from it."
Mad Max
What if Internet abuses become nearly intolerable after it's too late to turn back? We'd be in for what Bishop calls a Mad Max scenario: "People would be anxious, they wouldn't reveal anything about themselves, there'd be no protection," he explains. "It would be the way people are now about personal safety-with gated communities, locked doors, isolation." Hackers and online criminals would prosper in such a world, he says, "but so would those offering countermeasures."
Which scenario is the most likely? Ironically, futurists don't like to make predictions, says Bishop. "It all amounts to a balance between cost and benefit. No one can say at what point violations of online privacy become too much for people."
